The North - Western Conundrum

It’s going to be a week now after the cowardly attack in a military establishment in the Uri sector near the LOC. MEA's diligent efforts have isolated Pakistan internationally. This should well be a diplomatic Check & Mate, because Islamabad is not known to be an entity behaving in line with values such as honesty and integrity.

There has been much going on about India going into war with Pakistan. But should we not single out what we are to achieve through this war, we will waste tremendous resources in a vague attempt. The numerous wars with Pakistan over the last 6 decades have all but taught one thing: It is like the tail of the dog that simply doesn't straighten. Kashmir has been the Achille's heel in the petty history of Pakistan's existence, a country solely carved out in the name of a religion. Add to it the drubbing of 1971, when we freed East-Pakistan from the clutches of our North-Western Neighbour and created a new Nation in the Asian Peninsula- Bangladesh. Pakistan couldn't swallow it.

The whole narrative of "freeing" Kashmir has once again turned upside down with India upping the ante of the Balochistan Issue. The point to be noted is that our relentless efforts have been rendered useless. Till the Civil Establishment in Pakistan is not free from the clutches of the Army, there is little hope that the conundrum called Pakistan can ever be solved. I would like to reiterate, the problem has never been Kashmir, the problem has always been Pakistan itself.

Wars cost tremendously to both the sides. While Pakistan is a lost cause, we are a growing economy and a war at this juncture certainly won't prove an impetus to our cause. Sentiments do call for a swift retribution, but a calm head should be skeptical of such a hasty decision. China wants India to engage militarily with Pakistan which will halt India's march towards progress and the difference with China remains intact. There is a huge possibility that China might as well intervene in the "impending" war.

The question is can we ward off both China and Pakistan at the same time?

Do we have the resources to fight a pro-longed full-scale war?

And even if we do have and the war ends on the intervention of the UN, what guarantee is offered on the table that Pakistan won't resort to proxy-wars in the future?

Unless we are sure enough to 'take-over Islamabad', topple the government and install a friendly one, it is useless going into war with such a nation, unless it promises to be the last one.

The only military option we have is of Surgical Strikes. But we don't have special units to carry out Behind-enemy-lines attacks. After the 1972 Olympics the French set up the GIGN, specialized unit for counter-terrorist ops and hostage rescues in other countries. The Israelis have Sayeret Matkal for such missions. We have the NSGs specialized in counter-terrorist ops in India itself, but we don't yet have a unit specialized in Behind-enemy-lines operations. We may use UAVs to attack LeT and JeM camps. But having boots on the ground would have had an impact Pakistan would have felt for years to come. 

So what do we do? First, carry forward the diplomatic onslaught without a loss in momentum till we completely isolate Pakistan in the international arena. The recent snub to Pakistan by UN Secretary General Ban-ki-Moon by not playing into their narrative gives the first round to us. We have to be prepared for a retaliation albeit our strong relations with numerous countries that have a say in the United Nations. Secondly, develop Specialized Units to carry out Operations on foreign soils. The importance of such units came to the fore in 4th July 1976, when Israeli Defence Force flew in 100 commandos 2,500 miles to the Entebbe Airport in Uganda and rescued 102 out of 106 hostages, who were hijacked by members of PFLP-EO in a Paris bound flight from Tel Aviv. It becomes all the more significant because the Ugandan dictator Idi Amin personally welcomed the hijackers and the Ungandan military stood by them. The rescue was planned with the help of intelligence collected by MOSSAD.

The terrain of the Indo-Pak border in Kashmir makes it very difficult to carry out reconnaissance missions. Hence, it has to be carried out very tactfully putting less and less lives of our soldiers at risk. Unless we have "enough" intelligence and a well-formulated action plan, military action is inadvisable.